Gold sector in 2025: Renewed interest driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties

Gold sector in 2025: Renewed interest driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties

Completed on 21/05/2025

By Charlotte Peuron, Fund manager specialized in precious metals, Crédit Mutuel Asset Management

Crédit Mutuel Asset Management is an asset management company of Groupe La Française, the holding company of the asset management business line of Crédit Mutuel Alliance Fédérale.

Since the beginning of 2025, gold has seen significant growth, appreciating by over 23% in US dollars^[1]. This upward dynamic was evident in April, when the price of the ounce peaked at $3,500, driven by geopolitical tensions, notably the announcement of new tariffs by the Trump administration.

Amid growing concern over a slowdown in the US economy, the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar, and increasing skepticism toward the United States as both an economic partner and a military ally, gold is seen as a safe haven. Since mid-2024, this sentiment has extended to Western investors, who previously had little exposure to gold and the gold-mining sector. 2025 saw growing interest from European and North American institutional investors, particularly in gold ETFs.

In the context of de-dollarization, a process initiated in 2020 (notably with China) emerging market central banks and sovereign wealth funds have intensified their gold purchases. India, which had refrained from purchasing gold for several years, recently made significant purchases. The Reserve Bank of India added nearly 75 tons of gold^[2] to its reserves in 2024 and continued to amass gold in the first quarter of 2025. European central banks have, for the most part, maintained their inventories with the exception of Poland which has added nearly 50 tons since the beginning of 2025.

Since peaking in April, the gold market has entered a phase of correction, briefly dropping to $3,177 per ounce^[3]. The precious metal seems to be entering a slightly less favorable period in the short term. This movement fits with the classic behavior of gold market, which tends to progress in stages. We believe that there will be continued demand from central banks especially given current skepticism regarding the US dollar, which is expected to remain high.

This commentary is provided for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by La Française are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other investment professionals. The information contained in this document does not constitute investment advice, an investment proposal or an invitation to trade in the financial markets. Published by La Française Finance Services, head office located at 128 boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris, France, a company regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel as an investment services provider, no. 18673 X, a subsidiary of La Française. Crédit Mutuel Asset Management: 128 Boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris is an asset management company approved by the Autorité des marchés financiers under n° GP 97 138 and registered with ORIAS(www.orias.fr) under no. 25003045 since 11/04/2025. Société Anonyme with capital of €3871680, RCS Paris n° 388,555,021, Crédit Mutuel Asset Management is a subsidiary of Groupe La Française, the asset management holding company of Crédit Mutuel Alliance Fédérale. 

Footnotes

1. ^[1] Bloomberg, 20/05/2025 ↑
2. ^[2] India is increasing gold reserves ↑
3. ^[3] Bloomberg, 14/05/2025 ↑